Developed by our team and based on the work by Cummings & Kuzma et al., 2017 [1], OSIRIS is a robust screening tool to identify issues of increased concern and limited uncertainty in order to quantitatively demonstrate the dynamic relationship between a Synthetic Biology project and its impact on the world. It is characterized by high interoperability in different case-studies and its multi-faceted methodology of information collection as received from a multidisciplinary panel of experts. A proof-of-principle analysis can be found here. A complete step-by-step guide follows:
1. Carry out an eSWOT Analysis. eSWOT is an enhanced Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats analysis (eSWOT) of the proposed project. Add a pre-processing step before the SWOT analysis by employing a PCR (Parameter Chain Reduction) brainstorming method in order to feed validated-only SWOTs in the final analysis. The PCR “program” is the following:
(i) Possible SWOTs are proposed through team discussions.
(ii) SWOT candidates are decomposed into simplified complementary statements.
(iii) Socratic method (also known as maieutics, method of elenchus) is utilized as a way to thoroughly investigate possible strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. The team is divided into groups of two interlocutors, one that asserts the proposed SWOT statement and one that targets for refutation.
(iv) Only SWOT candidates that survive the in-depth debating (during multiple rounds) are tampulated in the final eSWOT analysis.
2. Create a Stakeholder/Value Matrix to identify all stakeholders that might have interests or concerns regarding the proposed project. This constitutes the first filter of the sample of multidisciplinary experts who can provide greater insight into detected or emerging project issues.
3. Map out the stakeholders (experts) according to power and interests on a Stakeholder (Expert) Map in order to gain further insight on their position relative to your project.
4. Create a Stakeholder (Expert) Map in order to map the stakeholders (experts) according to power and interests to aid in downstream analysis.
These 4 steps allow team members to have a clear picture of the stakeholders/experts and complete an initial risk assessment.
*Key things to consider*
A. Selection of panel of experts:
- Identified by team members (Steps 1-4 of the pre-analysis)
- Found by Muses; collegiate ambassadors collaborating with the members to establish a line of communication with experts on an international level.
B. OSIRIS consists of a tweaked 3-round Policy Delphi method. Named after the Oracle of Delphi, it is a forecasting, decision support method that uses the panel of experts to distil responses and build toward group consensus regarding the risk prediction of the proposed project. The method is conducted sequentially in 3 Rounds:
- Open-ended interviews in the form of Q&A for qualitative data collection regarding general issues of the proposed project (via email, Skype, in-person interview)
- Formation of a quantitative online survey after evaluating the answers of the 1st Round. This Round is comprised of 8 sets of questions (each set has 2 categories: Risk/Benefit, Uncertainty).
- During Round 3, after analyzing the concerns that have arised from Rounds 1 & 2, perform a short-round of questioning, internally between team members and externally with the advisors and synthetic biology experts. This round was designed in order to simulate the challenge of iGEM teams to come-up with radical redesigns for their project according to the received feedback.
1. Perform all 3 rounds of the Policy-Delphi study.
2. Calculate an additive risk/benefit and certainty index and ultimately a mean risk/benefit and certainty score for each factor:
3. Visualize the results in octagonal plots that allow for granular assessment of each factor of the OSIRIS protocol in terms of both its risk or benefit profile as well as expert uncertainty of current understanding of that given criterion and its potential management.
4. Follow an exhaustive analysis by comparing the octagonal plots with the Risk Map (Step 4) and the finalized graphs and qualitative answers/data derived from the first two rounds of the Policy-Delphi method. Draw conclusions on the most important risks, benefits and areas of the proposed project.
Work collaboratively with other teams or research groups in order to reshape your initial approach by integrating several of the aforementioned criteria into decision making and experimental planning.
[1]Cummings, C. L., & Kuzma, J. (2017). Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES): scenario-based multi-criteria evaluation of synthetic biology applications. PloS one, 12(1), e0168564.
