Mutation rate estimation
The flow rate through the lagoons \(\Phi_{L}\) and the number of generations \(N_{G}\) are redudant. In the calculation, \(\Phi_{L}\) is prioritised, so set it to zero to use the number of generations for the calculation.
Consider \(L_{S}\) as the number of basepairs that is expected to be mutated. If a part of the sequence you are interested in, is highly conserved choose a lower \(L_{S}\).

Table 1: Additional Variables and Parameters used for the calculation of the number of mutated sequences List of all paramters and variables used in the analytic solution of this model and the theory behind it.

Symbol Value and Unit Explanation
\(t \) [h] Total time in lagoon
\(p_{m} \) [bp/bp] Expected number of mutations per sequence
\(p_{M} \) [bp/sequences] Expected number of mutations in all sequences
\(N_{M} \) [bp] Number of mutated basepairs
\(L_{S} \) [bp] Length of sequence that is considered
\(N_{g} \) [generations] Number of generations
\(r_{M} \) \([\frac{1}{bp \cdot generation}]\)
\(\Phi_{L} \) [Vol/h]
\(N_{S} \) [sequences] Number of sequences
\(p_{(N_{M} > 0)} \) Probability to find at least one mutated sequence in a pool of sequences
\(p_{(N_{M} = 0)} \) Probability to find no mutated sequences in a pool of sequences
Get your probabilities
\(p_{m} =\) % (bp/bp). \(N_{M} =\) bp per sequence. The share of sequences that shows at least one mutation in \(L_{S}\) bp is \(p_{M}=\) % of sequences